Calgary, December 13, 2011 – According to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) Fall Rental Market Survey, the average vacancy rate for privately-initiated rental apartments in the Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) decreased to 1.9 per in 2011, compared to 3.6 per cent in October 2010. This tells me people are moving back to Calgary because the jobs are here and at some point rents will go. At that point people that are renting are now looking at buying their own home because of the higher cost to rent. This means more demand for homes and maybe we’ll see the busy spring market return to Calgary in 2012.

Alberta’s economy is expected to rebound in 2012, leading to improved demand for housing in all sectors, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. “Over the balance of the forecast period, demand for single-detached homes will improve with a growing economy, job creation and rising incomes,” Lai Sing Louie, regional economist for CMHC, said at CMHC’s 2011 Alberta Housing Outlook Conference earlier this week. “In 2012 single-detached starts are expected to rise by over 15 per cent to 18,400 units (in Alberta).” Similarly, multi-family starts will experience demand, pushing those starts to 10,800 throughout the province – an increase of 14.6 per cent. The upturn is still considerably less than it was during the boom, but the steady growth can be attributed to several factors, including “Alberta’s resource-based economy, which is expected to outperform the national growth rate of GDP this year and next,” says Louie. That, in turn, means employment opportunities which will attract migrants, and persistent record-low mortgage rates will make homeownership more attractive. The Calgary forecast is similarly optimistic, albeit both are influenced by outside factors such as the European monetary crisis and the U.S. economy. Still, the 2012 forecast is generally much more optimistic.

Two good news stories to round out the year. As predicted, the Bank of Canada kept the benchmark interest rate flat. It would not have been a complete shock if there had been a nudge up, as Stats Canada recently reported that our economy is expanding at a 3.5 per cent annual pace. But as economies around the world continue to show signs of struggle, the BoC decision to hold the rate at one per cent was no surprise.

Want to know more about how rates play into the housing market? Please call.

A Canadian real estate expert says the best way to predict housing sales and price gains is to track population and job growth numbers. Don Campbell with the Canadian Real Estate Investment Network says Calgary leads the country in those two categories which usually produces a bit of a housing boom 18 months later.

Campbell says between now and 2016, Calgary and Edmonton will become the country’s real estate hotbeds. He predicts house prices in Alberta’s two biggest cities will rise by 5 to 7 per cent in 2012, and post gains of 7 to 10 per cent in 2013.

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